An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability     

Arun Kumar  Mingyue Chen  Wanqiu Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1119-1131

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30?C40?days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability.  相似文献   

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Wanqiu Wang  Pingping Xie  Soo-Hyun Yoo  Yan Xue  Arun Kumar  Xingren Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(7-8):1601-1620

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere?Cocean?Csea ice?Cland forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998?C2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious jumps in soil moisture between adjacent streams. Thirdly, there is an inconsistency in long-term sea ice extent variations over the Arctic regions between the CFSR and other observations with the CFSR showing smaller sea ice extent before 1997 and larger extent starting in 1997. These deficiencies may have impacts on the application of the CFSR for climate diagnoses and predictions. Relationships between surface heat fluxes and SST tendency and between SST and precipitation are analyzed and compared with observational estimates and other reanalyses. Global mean fields of surface heat and water fluxes together with radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are documented and presented over the entire globe, and for the ocean and land separately.  相似文献   

An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

P. Peng  A. Kumar  W. Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(3-4):637-648

In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December?CJanuary?CFebruary, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air?Csea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included.  相似文献   

Concurrent Use of OSCAT and AltiKa to Characterize Antarctic Ice Surface Features     

Kamaljit Singh Rajkumar  Megha Maheshwari  Jayaprasad Pallipad  Dhani Ram Rajak  Raj Kumar 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):497-509

Radar altimetry provides an important geophysical parameter, backscatter coefficient (σ₀), which is useful in studying target surface characteristics. Ku-band (Oceansat-2 scatterometer- OSCAT) and Ka-band (SARAL-AltiKa altimeter) data are concurrently used to characterize polar surface features over the Antarctic region. Maximum-likelihood classification has been employed to classify combined data set (AltiKa and OSCAT) for discrimination among sea ice, open water, and ice sheet (interior and exterior). The sea ice region obtained using the current approach has been compared with sea ice boundary derived from passive microwave data.  相似文献   

Use of SARAL/AltiKa Observations for Modeling River Flow     

Praveen Gupta  Amit Kumar Dubey  Nandita Goswami  Raghvendra Pratap Singh  Prakash Chauhan 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):614-625

In the absence of many gauging stations in the major and mighty river systems, there is a need for satellite-based observations to estimate temporal variations in the river water storage and associated water management. In this study, SARAL/AltiKa application for setting up hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) and river flow simulations over Tapi River India has been discussed. Waveform data of 40 Hz from Ka band altimeter has been used for water levels retrieval in the Tapi river. SARAL/AltiKa retrieved water levels were converted to discharge in the upstream location (track-926) using the rating curve available for the nearby gauging site and using linear spatial interpolation technique. Steady state simulations were done for various flow conditions in the upstream. Validation of river flow model was done in the downstream location (track-367) by comparing simulated and altimeter retrieved water levels (RMSE 0.67 m). Validated model was used to develop rating curve between water levels and simulated discharge for the downstream location which enables to monitor discharge variations from satellite platform in the absence of in situ observations. It has been demonstrated that SARAL/AltiKa data has potential for river flow monitoring and modeling which will feed for flood disaster forecasting, management and planning.  相似文献   

Soil characterization based on land cover heterogeneity over a tropical landscape: an integrated approach using earth observation data-sets     

Diwakar Paudel  Jay Krishna Thakur  Sudhir Kumar Singh  Prashant K. Srivastava 《国际地球制图》2015,30(2):218-241

Soil is a vital part of the natural environment and is always responding to changes in environmental factors, along with the influences of anthropogenic factors and land use changes. The long-term change in soil properties will result in change in soil health and fertility, and hence the soil productivity. Hence, the main aim of this paper focuses on the analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) change pattern in spatial and temporal perspective and to present its impact on soil properties in the Merawu catchment over the period of 18?years. Post classification change detection was performed to quantify the decadal changes in historical LULC over the periods of 1991, 2001 and 2009. The pixel to pixel comparison method was used to detect the LULC of the area. The key LULC types were selected for investigation of soil properties. Soil samples were analysed in situ to measure the physicochemical soil properties. The results of this study show remarkable changes in LULC in the period of 18?years. The effect of land cover change on soil properties, soil compaction and soil strength was found to be significant at a level of <0.05.  相似文献   

Land quality index assessment for agricultural purpose using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)     

Tarun Kumar 《国际地球制图》2015,30(7):822-841

In this study, an attempt has been made to apply Remote Sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) to determine land quality for agriculture purpose using analytic hierarchy process technique. In this study, various thematic layers were used like organic matter content, soil texture, soil depth, soil pH, soil P, soil K, geomorphology, run-off potential, slope and land use/land cover to assess the land quality index of the study area for the agriculture purpose which were generated in the RS and GIS environment. The study area can be divided into four zones, viz. high quality, moderately quality, marginally quality and low quality according to their suitability of land quality for agriculture purpose. It was found that about 39.09, 31.24, 20.41 and 9.26% of the study area falls under high quality zone, moderately quality, marginally quality and low quality zone, respectively, for agricultural purpose.  相似文献   

Stochastic finite-fault modeling of M w 5.4 earthquake along Uttarakhand–Nepal border     

Mittal  Himanshu  Kumar  Ashok 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(2):1145-1161

Natural Hazards - In this work, an attempt has been made to simulate strong ground motion of M w 5.4 earthquake in Kumaun region of Uttarakhand. The simulation is based on modified stochastic...  相似文献   

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences     

A. P. Singh  Indrajit G. Roy  Santosh Kumar  J. R. Kayal 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(1):33-55

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.  相似文献   

Coda wave attenuation characteristics for Kumaon and Garhwal Himalaya,India     

Kumar  Ashvini  Sinvhal  A.  Joshi  A.  Kumar  D.  Sandeep  Kumar  Parveen 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):1057-1074

Natural Hazards - Uttarakhand Himalayas are among one of the most seismically active continental regions of the world. The Himalayan belt in this region is divided into Kumaon and Garhwal Himalaya....  相似文献